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WZZM 13 Presidential poll shows smaller lead for Obama

6:47 AM, Oct 11, 2012   |    comments
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  • The WZZM 13 poll on the 2012 Presidential race in Michigan. The poll was conducted by the Glengariff Group.
  • The WZZM 13 poll on the 2012 Presidential race in Michigan. The poll was conducted by the Glengariff Group.
  • The WZZM 13 poll on the 2012 Presidential race in Michigan. The poll was conducted by the Glengariff Group.
    

GRAND RAPIDS (WZZM) - The latest poll conducted for WZZM 13, WDIV Local 4 and the Detroit News finds that President Obama has lost the edge in Michigan that he gained after the Democratic National Convention.

The Glengariff Group survey was conducted October 6-8, after the first Presidential Debate and the release of the positive unemployment report.  The survey included 600 respondents, 80% of which were reached on land-line phones and 20% on cell phones.

The survey found Mitt Romney with 42.3% support to Barack Obama's 49.0% support.  Those numbers are close to the pre-convention survey conducted in August.

May
  • Romney 39.5%
  • Obama 45.1% (+5.6)

August

  • Romney 42.0%
  • Obama 47.5% (+5.5)

September

  • Romney 38.0%
  • Obama 52.0% (+14.0)

October

  • Romney 42.3%
  • Obama 49.0% (+6.7%)

The poll found that Obama still holds a sizable (+9) lead over Romney among women, but that lead is down from the +20 advantage he held in September. Obama also leads Romney with men by a +4 margin.

Debate Impact

Poll respondents overwhelmingly believed that Mitt Romney won the first Presidential Debate. 76% of the respondents said they watched part or all of the debate.  Respondents gave the advantage to Romney 66% to 14%.  11.6% felt the debate was a draw.

The Issues

When asked about issues, Romney and Obama were tied on The Economy, but Obama still holds and advantage on Foreign Affairs and Values.

Economy               August          September       October

Romney                 45.8%              40.2%              45.3%             

Obama                   45.0%              49.7%              45.2%

Margin                   -0.8%               +9.5%              -0.1%

     

Foreign Affairs     August          September       October

Romney                 38.0%              34.7%              39.7%

Obama                   51.0%              55.0%              50.0%

Margin                   +13.0%            +20.3%            +10.3%

 

Values                   August           September       October

Romney                 39.3%              38.7%              39.5%

Obama                   50.2%              54.3%              48.3%

Margin                   +10.9%            +15.6%            +8.8%

A recent EPIC-MRA poll and a Foster, McCollum, White & Baydoun poll both have Obama with just a +3 lead over Obama.

The Glengariff poll explains the difference because this analysis includes cell phones, which the other two polls do not, and because the poll was taken after both the first Presidential Debate and the release of the unemployment numbers.

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