DETROIT – After a surprising increase in 2018 vehicle sales, auto experts predict overall numbers will drop this year.
The industry closed out last year strongly with December sales up 2.2. percent, according to Kelley Blue Book. The total sales hit 17.3 million, marking the fourth straight year they eclipsed 17 million.
“The forecast was that they would drop a little, but they ended up being stronger sales than we would have thought,” said Brian Moody, executive editor at Autotrader.com. “So, it turned out to be, for a variety of reasons, a pretty strong year.”
Moody said increased fleet sales may have factored into the overall growth.
“People say it like it’s not a great thing, but it’s still vehicles being produced and sold for a specific purpose,” he said. “While maybe not as many retail customers grew in 2018 as we would like to see, they're still where the vehicle is being sold.”
The sales practically plateaued despite a falling demand for the sedan. Kelley Blue Book found the traditional car’s share of the market dropped to about 31 percent in 2018, a four percent decrease from the previous year.
Crossover vehicles and SUVs are making up for the lost sedan sales, said Doug North, vice chairman of the 2019 North American International Auto Show.
“When people recognize that they can get good fuel economy at a reasonable price, and they can get more space, they’re very interested in that,” North said. “[Those vehicles] are really kind of replacing what might have been a four-door sedan in prior years.”
The 2019 sales are expected to dip below 17 million, Moody said, factoring in increased vehicle prices and insurance rates.
“We think the number will be around 16.8 [million] for 2019, which is again not record breaking, but it’s also not ‘the bottom falls out,’” he said. “It’s a good place to be…a slight slowdown, maybe a tiny bit of a correction.”
The “unknowns” of the Trump administration, including tariffs with China and the new USMCA trade deal, may also contribute to falling sales in 2019, said Jenni Newman, editor-in-chief at Cars.com.
“Automakers plan out products for years and years, so these changes are coming so quickly that it’s hard for them to react to them,” Newman said.
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