Michigan is likely to lose one of its 15 seats in Congress after the 2010 U.S. census - meaning the possibility of a little less clout in Washington, a little less attention from presidential candidates and the smallest delegation from Michigan in about 100 years, based on census numbers released today.
Even though the state's population grew by 1.6% over the last six years, it did so a lot more slowly than in states like Texas (13%), Arizona (20%) and Nevada (25%). That means reapportionment of the 435-member U.S. House will send seats from slow-growing or backsliding Northeast and Midwest states to the South and West.
"I don't think there's any chance of a turnaround, given the magnitude," Clark Bensen, whose Virginia-based firm Polidata researches population numbers for political clients, said Wednesday. "Unless Toyota moves into Detroit and takes over, you're going down."
Based on Bensen's projections for 2010, Michigan will be among a handful of states likely to lose a seat - Pennsylvania, Illinois, Iowa and Minnesota among them. New York and Ohio stand to lose two, he said.
His projections show Texas gaining four seats and Florida and Arizona two apiece.
Bensen noted that if reapportionment occurred today, Michigan would keep its 15 seats. But if the trends nationwide continue, it's unlikely after the next census.
It would then be up to the state Legislature to carve out districts among 14 seats.
Michigan has lost at least one representative after each of the last four censuses, from a peak of 19 after the 1960 census. The number determines how many Electoral College votes a state gets for president, with one for every Congress member and each of two senators.
Contact TODD SPANGLER at tspangler@freepress.com.
| COUNTY NAME | 2000 population | 2006 population | Number change | Percentage change |
| Alcona County | 11,719 | 11,759 | 40 | 0 |
| Alger County | 9,862 | 9,665 | -197 | -2 |
| Allegan County | 105,665 | 113,501 | 7,836 | 7 |
| Alpena County | 31,314 | 30,067 | -1,247 | -4 |
| Antrim County | 23,110 | 24,463 | 1,353 | 6 |
| Arenac County | 17,269 | 17,024 | -245 | -1 |
| Baraga County | 8,746 | 8,742 | -4 | 0 |
| Barry County | 56,755 | 59,899 | 3,144 | 6 |
| Bay County | 110,157 | 108,390 | -1,767 | -2 |
| Benzie County | 15,998 | 17,652 | 1,654 | 10 |
| Berrien County | 162,455 | 161,705 | -750 | 0 |
| Branch County | 45,787 | 45,875 | 88 | 0 |
| Calhoun County | 137,985 | 137,991 | 6 | 0 |
| Cass County | 51,102 | 51,329 | 227 | 0 |
| Charlevoix County | 26,090 | 26,422 | 332 | 1 |
| Cheboygan County | 26,448 | 27,282 | 834 | 3 |
| Chippewa County | 38,543 | 38,674 | 131 | 0 |
| Clare County | 31,252 | 31,307 | 55 | 0 |
| Clinton County | 64,753 | 69,909 | 5,156 | 8 |
| Crawford County | 14,273 | 14,928 | 655 | 5 |
| Delta County | 38,520 | 38,156 | -364 | -1 |
| Dickinson County | 27,472 | 27,447 | -25 | 0 |
| Eaton County | 103,655 | 107,237 | 3,582 | 3 |
| Emmet County | 31,437 | 33,607 | 2,170 | 7 |
| Genesee County | 436,148 | 441,966 | 5,818 | 1 |
| Gladwin County | 26,023 | 27,008 | 985 | 4 |
| Gogebic County | 17,370 | 16,524 | -846 | -5 |
| Grand Traverse County | 77,654 | 84,952 | 7,298 | 9 |
| Gratiot County | 42,285 | 42,107 | -178 | 0 |
| Hillsdale County | 46,527 | 47,206 | 679 | 1 |
| Houghton County | 36,016 | 35,334 | -682 | -2 |
| Huron County | 36,079 | 34,143 | -1,936 | -5 |
| Ingham County | 279,414 | 276,898 | -2,516 | -1 |
| Ionia County | 61,518 | 64,821 | 3,303 | 5 |
| Iosco County | 27,339 | 26,831 | -508 | -2 |
| Iron County | 13,138 | 12,377 | -761 | -6 |
| Isabella County | 63,351 | 65,818 | 2,467 | 4 |
| Jackson County | 158,422 | 163,851 | 5,429 | 3 |
| Kalamazoo County | 238,603 | 240,720 | 2,117 | 1 |
| Kalkaska County | 16,571 | 17,330 | 759 | 5 |
| Kent County | 574,335 | 599,524 | 25,189 | 4 |
| Keweenaw County | 2,301 | 2,183 | -118 | -5 |
| Lake County | 11,333 | 11,793 | 460 | 4 |
| Lapeer County | 87,904 | 93,761 | 5,857 | 7 |
| Leelanau County | 21,119 | 22,112 | 993 | 5 |
| Lenawee County | 98,947 | 102,191 | 3,244 | 3 |
| Livingston County | 156,951 | 184,511 | 27,560 | 18 |
| Luce County | 7,024 | 6,684 | -340 | -5 |
| Mackinac County | 11,943 | 11,050 | -893 | -7 |
| Macomb County | 788,149 | 832,861 | 44,712 | 6 |
| Manistee County | 24,527 | 25,067 | 540 | 2 |
| Marquette County | 64,634 | 64,675 | 41 | 0 |
| Mason County | 28,274 | 29,045 | 771 | 3 |
| Mecosta County | 40,553 | 42,252 | 1,699 | 4 |
| Menominee County | 25,326 | 24,696 | -630 | -2 |
| Midland County | 82,874 | 83,792 | 918 | 1 |
| Missaukee County | 14,478 | 15,197 | 719 | 5 |
| Monroe County | 145,945 | 155,035 | 9,090 | 6 |
| Montcalm County | 61,266 | 63,977 | 2,711 | 4 |
| Montmorency County | 10,315 | 10,478 | 163 | 2 |
| Muskegon County | 170,200 | 175,231 | 5,031 | 3 |
| Newaygo County | 47,874 | 49,840 | 1,966 | 4 |
| Oakland County | 1,194,156 | 1,214,255 | 20,099 | 2 |
| Oceana County | 26,873 | 28,639 | 1,766 | 7 |
| Ogemaw County | 21,645 | 21,665 | 20 | 0 |
| Ontonagon County | 7,818 | 7,202 | -616 | -8 |
| Osceola County | 23,197 | 23,584 | 387 | 2 |
| Oscoda County | 9,418 | 9,140 | -278 | -3 |
| Otsego County | 23,301 | 24,711 | 1,410 | 6 |
| Ottawa County | 238,314 | 257,671 | 19,357 | 8 |
| Presque Isle County | 14,411 | 14,144 | -267 | -2 |
| Roscommon County | 25,469 | 26,064 | 595 | 2 |
| Saginaw County | 210,042 | 206,300 | -3,742 | -2 |
| Sanilac County | 44,547 | 44,448 | -99 | 0 |
| Schoolcraft County | 8,903 | 8,744 | -159 | -2 |
| Shiawassee County | 71,687 | 72,912 | 1,225 | 2 |
| St. Clair County | 164,235 | 171,725 | 7,490 | 5 |
| St. Joseph County | 62,422 | 62,777 | 355 | 1 |
| Tuscola County | 58,266 | 57,878 | -388 | -1 |
| Van Buren County | 76,263 | 79,018 | 2,755 | 4 |
| Washtenaw County | 322,770 | 344,047 | 21,277 | 7 |
| Wayne County | 2,061,162 | 1,971,853 | -89,309 | -4 |
| Wexford County | 30,484 | 31,994 | 1,510 | 5 |
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