LANSING – What a difference a few votes can make.
Don’t agree? Consider the 2006 primary race between Republican state senate candidates John Findlay and Vincent Green, both battling to represent the 23rd District in a special election to replace Virg Bernero. The race came down to one vote.
One vote.
The winner was Green, with 1,317 votes to Findlay’s 1,316. He went on to face Democrat Gretchen Whitmer (yes, that Gretchen Whitmer) in the general election. Whitmer won the seat.
There's a lesson to be learned from close races, said Bill Ballenger, a longtime Michigan political analyst: Every vote counts.
"It's pretty obvious that there have been elections won based on voter turnout," he said.
Political experts and voting advocates say Election Day is not something to ignore, considering the likelihood Michigan voters will weigh in on a nail-biter this Tuesday.
Keep reading to learn more about close Michigan races, what voting activists say about the power of your vote and some of the issues Michigan residents will decide this week.
How close can it get?
The 1-vote Findlay-Green race is just one of the recent examples of Michigan politicians selected by slim margins, according to state election records and newspaper accounts.
Some major races have been decided by a margin of less than 1 percentage point, like the 1990 governor's race in which Republican John Engler bested incumbent Democrat James Blanchard by about 19,000 votes.
It happened again in 2000, when Mike Rogers won the U.S. 8th House District seat against Dianne Byrum thanks to a 0.2 percentage point lead.
And it happened again in 2014, in state house race for the 71st District, which represents most of Eaton County. Republican Tom Barrett beat Democrat Theresa Abed by 148 votes, less than a 0.5 percentage point lead.
Other races have come down to less than 100 votes. That was the case in 2014, when Republican Margaret O'Brien won the election for 20th District state Senate seat in Kalamazoo County. O'Brien had 61 more votes than her opponent, Democrat Sean McCann.
It happened twice in 2010. Republican Kurt Damrow won the race for the State House 84th District by 18 votes in a race against Democrat Terry Brown. Also that year, Judge Cathy Dowd was elected to the 68th District Court bench over Damika Pace-Byrd by 43 votes.
The recipe for a close race
When cooking a close race, the ingredients are as follows, according to Matt Grossmann, director of Michigan State University's Institute for Public Policy and Social Research:
- Two candidates with similar name recognition and experience.
- One national news cycle that doesn't clearly benefit one political party.
- One swing state (hey there, Michigan).
- Money, lots of it.
Mix 'em up, and you're likely to get a competitive election.
Consider how those ingredients are playing into the ongoing Michigan governor's race.
Michigan voters tend to flip between Republican and Democratic governors, which gives Democrat Gretchen Whitmer a leg up as Republican Gov. Rick Snyder ends his second term. But Republican Bill Schuette entered the race with more name recognition, so points for him. The national environment is favoring Democratic turnout, again a good sign for Whitmer, Grossmann said.
Lastly, look at the cash. According to a report from the nonprofit Michigan Campaign Finance Network, $75 million has been spent on the governor's race so far, making it the most expensive contest since 2006. Whitmer's campaign has raised more than Schuette's, according to the report, but spending by outside groups has dwarfed that of the candidates.
Grossmann said polls point to a Whitmer win, but it could be close.
Ballenger agreed polling has predicted a favorable election for the Democrats, but speculated some races could shift with burgeoning vigor on the Republican side.
"The Republicans are pretty energized, too, and the [President Donald] Trump supporters are pretty energized," he said.
Why some voters show, and why the rest should
Voters tend to care most about the top of the ticket, Grossmann said. That's why turnout is higher in presidential election years.
Competitive elections tend to have high turnout, too, often because political parties ramp up their efforts to get their bases to the ballot box. Grossmann said research shows it's easier for parties to get loyal voters to show than to convince someone else to switch sides.
Turnout can have a lot to do with which party nabs hotly contested seats. Ballenger pointed to the close races in Michigan's recent history. Did you notice which side tends to win when the parties are neck-and-neck?
That's likely because people who identify with the Republican platform tend to be more consistent voters, he said. A surge in turnout on Tuesday could shift the results toward the Democrats.
Still, it all depends on who shows up to vote.
It's likely voters will weigh in on at least one close race, Grossmann said, considering how many local, state and federal candidates and ballot initiatives are on Tuesday's ballots.
"People's votes do matter, and people tend to regret not voting, especially when there’s a close race," he said.
'My vote doesn't matter'
Elizabeth Moore, co-president of the League of Women Voters of the Lansing Area, hears a lot of reasons Mid-Michigan residents say they don't feel compelled to head to the ballot boxes.
The non-partisan League of Women Voters works to register new voters and provide information on candidates and issues. That work puts volunteers like Moore in front of voters.
These are some of the things Moore said keep voters away from the polls:
- Limited polling hours make it tough for busy people to spend the time in line, especially if they work two jobs, have caregiving responsibilities or work odd hours
- They don't feel informed enough about the candidates or issues to feel comfortable weighing in
- They are undecided
"And then there’s the expression of, 'well my vote doesn’t matter anyway,'” she said.
To combat that dispirited sentiment, Moore said she brings up local issues that are easy to identify with. She said people sometimes need help making the connection between the political horse race and issues that affect day-to-day life.
"Votes for local officials affect your roads and your schools, and for state officials it's health care," she said.
On Tuesday, voting is literally on the ballot
The state ballot proposals are topics many voters can relate to, Moore said. Two of the three have to do with elections themselves, and the third would bring Michigan among the ranks of states that have legalized recreational marijuana.
- Proposal 1: Allow and legalize possession, use and cultivation of marijuana products for citizens who are at least 21 years old, and allow commercial sales through state-licensed sellers.
- Proposal 2: Enact a constitutional amendment to establish a citizen commission that would draw district boundaries for state and federal seats ever 10 years.
- Proposal 3: Authorize automatic and Election Day voter registration, no-reason absentee voting, straight-ticket voting. Add current legal requirements for military and overseas voting and post-election audits to Michigan Constitution.
So, does your vote count?
If there's one thing the experts and advocates interviewed for this story agreed on, it was that yes, every vote counts, especially when so many ingredients for a close race are present.
Remember how many past Michigan races came down to less than a percentage point, a handful of votes, or in one case just a single ballot?
On Tuesday, that vote could be yours.
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