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Debate analysis: The man who wasn't there? He was.

DES MOINES — It turns out that Donald Trump can dominate a debate even if he doesn’t show up on stage.

DES MOINES — It turns out that Donald Trump can dominate a debate even if he doesn’t show up on stage.

 

The political phenom of 2016 hijacked the seventh Republican presidential debate of the season — and the final one before the Iowa caucuses — by pulling out in a huff and instead staging a rally less than three miles away to raise funds for wounded veterans. His rivals had to hammer him in abstentia while Trump mocked them and the debate sponsors before his own friendly crowd.

"Let me say, I'm a maniac, and everyone on this stage is stupid, fat and ugly, and Ben (Carson), you're a terrible surgeon," Texas Sen. Ted Cruz said in response to the first question at the debate sponsored by Fox News and Google. Moderator Megyn Kelly, the target of Trump attacks for what he called unfair questions, had asked Cruz about "the elephant not in the room." 

"Now that we've got the Donald Trump portion out of the way," Cruz said to laughter, "I want to thank everyone here for showing the men and women of Iowa the respect to show up" and make their case for election.

More than an hour later, when the debate was nearly over, former Florida governor Jeb Bush was still blasting Trump for what he called a record of disparaging women, Muslims and the disabled — and he took credit for having stood up to the billionaire businessman when his rivals would not.

"I mentioned his name again, if anybody was missing him," Bush quipped. 

At Drake University on the other side of the city, Trump had drawn a packed crowd for his hastily arranged event, with dozens more lined up outside in freezing temperatures watching a livestream of the event. He said Fox News had treated him in disrespectful ways that would have forced anyone "to stick up for your rights." Then he bragged: "We have more cameras than they do by quite a bit."

The cross-town showdown was just the latest in a series of break-the-rules moments in Trump’s campaign, and yet another that seemed more likely to protect his lead than imperil his standing. Four days before the opening Iowa caucuses, Trump was on camera being cheered by supporters rather than questioned by debate moderators, with all the risks that can entail.

The seven participants in the debate — Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, retired neurosurgeon Carson, Cruz and Bush — pivoted in short order to talk about policy, bash Democrat Hillary Clinton and target one another. They tangled with particular fierceness over immigration. Cruz and Rubio had to respond to video montages that tracked what seemed to be shifting positions over time.

Even then, it was clear how much Trump had defined the campaign for them all. The issue of immigration was the one that first fueled Trump's rise. The moderators asked the candidates about criticism of Trump's proposals to close mosques and ban Muslim immigrants. Rubio accused Cruz of wanting "to trump Trump on immigration" by adopting increasingly hard-line positions. 

Trump's absence did seem to give the other candidates more breathing room to make their own cases, and a glimpse at how a conventional Republican contest that might be unfolding if he had never entered the race. Kasich pitched himself as pragmatic, competent and experienced. Christie declared that, as a former U.S. prosecutor, he would be best able to bring criminal changes against Clinton. Rubio repeatedly emphasized his evangelical faith. Bush was as energetic as he has been in any debate. 

And Cruz portrayed himself as someone who could unite the factions of the GOP. But the Texas senator was the most frequent target of his rivals.

"That's the lie that Ted's campaign is build on," Rubio said of Cruz, saying the Texas senator was trying to portray himself as the most consistent conservative on the stage. "The truth is, Ted, throughout this campaign, you've been willing to say or do anything in order to get votes." 

Cruz replied by saying Rubio was "very charming" and "very smooth." (He didn't make that sound like a compliment.)

The rivalry between Cruz and Rubio was particularly intense through the two-hour debate. Cruz' opponents have calculated that his political demise could open the door for one of them to emerge as the surviving alternative to Trump. Cruz has seen his fortunes in the Hawkeye State erode amid criticism of his opposition to ethanol subsidies and questions pressed by Trump about whether his Canadian birth makes him ineligible for the presidency.

In an NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll released Thursday, Trump was supported by 32% of likely Republican caucus-goers, ahead of Cruz at 25%, although Cruz is thought to have a stronger grassroots organization in the state. Rubio had gained ground, now at 18%. No other candidate reached double digits.

At his rally, Trump was joined by the two candidates who carried the Republican caucuses in 2008 and 2012, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum. They had participated in the opening "undercard" debate with former CEO Carly Fiorina and former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore — the contenders who lacked enough support in polls to make the cut for the main prime-time debate.

It won't take long to learn whether Iowa Republicans are inclined to reward Trump for his bravado or punish him for skipping the debate. The caucuses are Monday. "Ninety-three hours," Cruz intoned in his closing statement.

 

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