MICHIGAN, USA — The daily average of COVID-19 cases in Michigan continues to fall.
Numbers released Friday pushed the benchmark below 3,000, a number it's failed to reach since September.
But just how accurate are those metrics?
A viewer asked the 13 ON YOUR SIDE Verify team whether the current testing strategy may have produced a disconnect between the actual data and the statistics reported by state and federal agencies.
THE QUESTION:
"Can you verify if there is a correlation between the decrease in COVID cases and people testing at home with government issued tests that are not reported to CDC?” -Laura, Grand Rapids
OUR SOURCES:
- The Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (MDHHS)
- The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
- Dr. Andrew Jameson, division chief of infectious diseases and medical director of infection control, Mercy Health - St. Mary’s
THE ANSWER:
Yes, there is a correlation between the rise in testing at home and declining daily case counts as reported by state and federal agencies.
WHAT WE FOUND
"It absolutely is taking our numbers down," said Dr. Jameson.
The speed of the decline across various metrics, Jameson said, had thus far failed to translate into improvements as meaningful in hospital settings.
"Our active cases per 100,000 rate is definitely under-representing what is actually happening in the community."
For an explanation, we turn to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: In its guidance, the CDC “strongly encourages” those who test positive to notify personal physicians and local health officials, but stops short of a requirement, meaning many likely don't bother.
"I think that most people that test positive are not reflected… in our county numbers," Jameson said. "I don't think they report."
MDHHS appeared to arrive at the same conclusion in an emailed statement issued in response to a set of questions fielded Friday by 13 ON YOUR SIDE.
The agency revealed results obtained at home generally weren't reported, though it’s impossible to determine the practice's extent.
State health officials clarified they also factored data gathered via wastewater surveillance and hospitalization rates into their strategy, both of which would reflect the situation on the ground with a high degree of accuracy, regardless of testing procedures.
"If you are sick with COVID, and need to get hospitalized, you'll show up," Dr. Jameson said. "We’re also seeing… a decrease in our hospitalization numbers."
Meaning, the assessment that coronavirus has become less prevalent remains an accurate portrayal.
"We're still a ways away from that endemic state," Jameson said. "But we're heading there and we're getting closer than ever before."
Given the recent popularity of antigen testing, Jameson suggested hospitalization rates and death rates were more effective metrics.
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